Editorials

Wolf and Casey Positive Ratings/ Toomey Mixed Reviews

Two Democratic statewide officials are cruising, while one GOP Senator is treading water.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey enjoy double digit net approval ratings, while Sen. Pat Toomey is receiving mixed reviews.

Wolf reached a new high in this poll with 54% approving of his job performance, while 33% disapprove.

Wolf’s strongest numbers comes women and non-white voters in this poll. 59% of women approve of Wolf’s job performance, while 28% disapprove. Wolf still held positive numbers with men with 49% approving and 39% disapproving. 64% of non-white voters approve of Wolf’s job performance, while just a quarter of those polled disapprove. Wolf holds positive ratings from white voters as well with 53% approving and 35% disapproving. While recent trends indicate white voters without college degrees are abandoning the Democratic Party, Wolf’s approval rating with this voting bloc is slightly above water with 45% approving of his job performance and 42% disapproving. White voters with college degrees approve of Wolf 62%, while 26% disapprove.

Wolf is overwhelmingly supported by Democratic voters, but also holds a double digit approval rating with Independents. Half of the Independents polled approve of Wolf’s job performance, while 37% disapprove. 63% of Republicans disapprove of Wolf, while 23% approve of his job performance.

Wolf’s approval rating can be seen in the way voters view how things are going on in the state. 66% polled are “very satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with the way things are going in Pennsylvania, which is the highest level since this number was recorded in April 2003.

“Pennsylvanians are feeling good about their state and its economy and that seems to be helping Gov. Tom Wolf’s job approval rating,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Casey holds a 48% approval rating in this poll, while 34% disapprove of his job performance.

Casey’s strongest support, like Wolf, also comes from women and non-white voters in this poll. Just over half of the women polled, 52%, approve of Casey’s job performance, while 28%, the same exact number for Wolf, disapprove. Men were rather split on Casey’s job performance with 43% approving and 41% disapproving. Over half, 55%, of non-white voters approve of his job performance, while 30% disapprove. Casey carries an 11 point net approval rating with white voters as 46% approve of his job performance, while 35% disapprove. White voters without college degrees delivered mixed ratings for Casey with 40% approving of his job performance, while 39% disapprove. Like Wolf, Casey’s approval rating is much higher with white voters with college degrees as 54% approve of his job performance in this bloc, while 30% disapprove.

Casey holds strong backing from Democratic voters, but carries so-so numbers with Independent voters. 42% of Independents approve of Casey’s job performance, while 40% disapprove. Casey holds similar approval rating with Republicans as Wolf with 24% although, his disapproval number is lower than the Governor as 57% in the GOP disapprove of Casey’s job performance.

Toomey doesn’t receive the same support from Pennsylvanians according to this poll. 37% approve of Toomey’s job performance, while 41% disapprove.

Toomey’s strongest support comes from white voters without college degrees, while men and women share similar ratings for the GOP Senator. Toomey holds a 6 point net approval rating with white voters without college degrees as 41% approve of his job performance, while 35% disapprove. Just over half, 51%, of white voters with college degrees disapprove of Toomey’s job performance, while a third, 33%, approve. The same exact percent, 37% of men and women support Toomey, while a larger percentage of men disapprove of his job performance. 45% of men disapprove Toomey leaving him with a negative net approval rating of 7 points with this bloc, while 38% of women disapprove, leaving him at just 1 point below water with them.

Toomey doesn’t receive nearly the same support within his own party as Casey and Wolf, although Independents deliver nearly identical ratings between the two Pennsylvania Senators. Just over half, 51%, of Republicans approve of Toomey’s job performance, while 27% disapprove. 42% of Independents support Toomey’s job performance, while 38% disapprove, giving Toomey the slight edge over Casey with this bloc of voters, but both trailing Wolf by a wide margin. A quarter, 25%, of Democrats approve of Toomey, while 56% disapprove, which is also nearly identical with Casey’s ratings with the opposing party.

The poll, surveying 978 Pennsylvania voters, collected data from May 9-14, 2019. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

See the full data here.

By John Cole